Poor analysis. China probably has more than 20 thousand tons and the US reserves are anybody's guess, but most likely less than the official amount, unaudited now for eons. With Russia about 12t.

That's even better than the nuke option. Kiss your $ goodbye!

Expand full comment

Thanks Jan. Great analysis.

Another factor which I don't think you mentioned (I may have missed it) is that the PBOC likes to buy 12.5kg bars, which I gather do not trade on the SGE.

It's also possible and indeed likely that of the domestic production and imports, a large portion went to other state bodies, not just private hands.

Expand full comment