In the hierarchy of money gold is superior to fiat money. From an historical perspective the past decades have been characterized by trust in fiat money, whereby fiat made up the lion share of global international reserves. The war between Russia and Ukraine (and by extension West and East), inflation, and systemic risks are reversing this trend. A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the
Hey Jan, great article as always. I really appreciate your well-researched, measured, and conservative approach to price predictions. I get fed up with guys making baseless outlandish claims of "$20,000 gold and $1,000 silver." As someone who owns both, (started buying silver in 2007) the prospect of $8,000/oz gold does not excite me even slightly, because I'm aware of the ramifications it will have for the majority of people. The common question I'm met with is "what can gold or silver do for me? How will it gain me money?" People have this ill-conceived notion that money begets money, when in a lawful money system this isn't the case. The fiat system we've been bridled with for the last 50+ years based on usury and ever expanding credit has created a patently false notion of what wealth is, and has completely destroyed any real ability for the market to have price discovery in fundamental sectors such as housing. When this breaks, not if, but when, millions of people will be destitute, holding liabilities they were taught to see as assets. I would argue that the only way a lawful monetary system could ever truly work and flourish would be for the loaning of money with interest to be banned. Sure, this sounds crazy, but I'd encourage you to do some research and look at the history of usury, when it became a mainstream practice, and who was behind it. A great book on the subject was written by Michael A. Hoffman. It's titled Usury in Christendom. Incredibly undervalued book. Changed my entire perspective of money. I don't consider myself a Christian in the modern sense of the term whatsoever, but this book is fantastic. I'll end by saying, what we have with the crypto/stocks/derivatives is all a de facto financial system. Gold, silver, and hard work are the only way to a de jure financial system.
Hey Jan, great article as always. I really appreciate your well-researched, measured, and conservative approach to price predictions. I get fed up with guys making baseless outlandish claims of "$20,000 gold and $1,000 silver." As someone who owns both, (started buying silver in 2007) the prospect of $8,000/oz gold does not excite me even slightly, because I'm aware of the ramifications it will have for the majority of people. The common question I'm met with is "what can gold or silver do for me? How will it gain me money?" People have this ill-conceived notion that money begets money, when in a lawful money system this isn't the case. The fiat system we've been bridled with for the last 50+ years based on usury and ever expanding credit has created a patently false notion of what wealth is, and has completely destroyed any real ability for the market to have price discovery in fundamental sectors such as housing. When this breaks, not if, but when, millions of people will be destitute, holding liabilities they were taught to see as assets. I would argue that the only way a lawful monetary system could ever truly work and flourish would be for the loaning of money with interest to be banned. Sure, this sounds crazy, but I'd encourage you to do some research and look at the history of usury, when it became a mainstream practice, and who was behind it. A great book on the subject was written by Michael A. Hoffman. It's titled Usury in Christendom. Incredibly undervalued book. Changed my entire perspective of money. I don't consider myself a Christian in the modern sense of the term whatsoever, but this book is fantastic. I'll end by saying, what we have with the crypto/stocks/derivatives is all a de facto financial system. Gold, silver, and hard work are the only way to a de jure financial system.